Trade Setup for Bank Nifty 04.03.2020

• Indices managed to close positively after the huge sell off from the previous session.
• FIIs still taking out money on a consistent basis, today net sold 2400 crs
• FII long exposure increased to 1% in Index Futures and Options. now 37% longs and 63% shorts were present in the index future and options.
• Daily CPR narrowed compared to previous day CPR, but the pivot levels did not change much , which means sentiment is still did not change (bearish).
• Max pain is around 29300 level, this is down from previous session levels 29500. indicates that bearish sentiment.
• However today's closing price is above the level of daily pivot which is bullish. 
• US and all global markets are positive because of stimulus hopes from the respective central bank. 
• we have to see how today's US market closes. 
• this is a sell on rise rally, every pull back can be sold into until we cross above 30000 levels, only then we can think of bull market. 
• Key support and resistance levels did not change much since previous day. 
• Key Support level is today's low which is 28750 then to 28550 , and 28380 level which is weekly 100 MA, if this breaks then we are going down to 28000 levels.
• Upside 29440,  29650 and then 30000 are the key things to watch-out for. 

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI register advisior, The above trade setup is purely based on my own study and analysis. i am not giving suggestions to buy / sell specific options. please consult your financial advisors / do the due diligence before taking any trade.

Trade Setup Bank Nifty 03.03.2020

• Last hour panic selling caused all indices closed Negatively.
• Bank Nifty reversed exactly from weekly pivot.
• FIIs were net seller, sold almost 1350 crs in cash market.
• as mentioned in previous blog, 28500 to 28300 is strong support zone, it took support near 28500 level and almost 350 points recovered in the last few minutes.
• This panic selling is due to cases reported in India, even global futures were  trading positively our indices fell.
• Bank Nifty down almost 1200 points from intra day high.
• Daily Pivot made lower low formation and price closed below Pivot which is bearish sentiment.
• CPR widened significantly, which means tomorrow could be sideways movement, but morning hour expecting that market will be highly volatile.
• Vix crashed to -8% and shoot up almost 9% on closing basis.
• All deep OTM puts are high due to this heavy selling.
• Now DOW trading mixed and today's closing will decide our opening tomorrow. 
• Key Support level is today's low which is 28570 then to 28380 level which is weekly 100 MA, if this breaks then we are going down to 28000 levels.
• Upside 29000 level, 29200 and then 29440 are the key things to watch-out for. 
• FII long to short net exposure is at  36% to 64%, this is surprising compare to previous day numbers. net shorts in index future down by 31300 this is surprising. is there some news which we dont know but they know? could this be the bottom? only time will tell.

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI register advisior, The above trade setup is purely based on my own study and analysis. i am not giving suggestions to buy / sell specific options. please consult your financial advisors / do the due diligence before taking any trade.

Trade Setup Bank Nifty 02.03.2020

• It was no brainier on Friday, every pull back is sold into. 
• Indices managed to close in Negative.
• Surprisingly Dow futures recovered 1000 points and closed positively on Friday. 
• Monthly, Weekly, Daily Pivot is formed lower low formation which is bearish sentiment.
• Huge short were added that brings Max Pain to 29500 level.
• FII were net short holding Long to short positions 32% vs 68% respectively in index futures and Options.
• Closing price is below Daily pivot which is bearish sentiment.
• All depends on how market will open on Monday. 
• CPR width widened, which imply there could be side way movement for short term.
• Based on volatility all put premium shoot up significantly. 
• VIX up 30% on Friday. 
• Key Support and resistance to watch out for 28500 to 28300 area should be strong support down side, upside 30000 which is weekly 50 moving avg. 
• only if there is some good news about virus remedy could lift the market (short covering), until then it would be sell on rise rally.   
• as OTM Call and Put option premiums are high good for short sellers to collect the premium.

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI register advisior, The above trade setup is purely based on my own study and analysis. i am not giving suggestions to buy / sell specific options. please consult your financial advisors / do the due diligence before taking any trade.

Trade Setup Bank Nifty 28.02.2020

• Index managed to comeback from days low but ended with negative bias.
• FIIs sold 3100 cr approx in cash market. DIIs bought 3400 crs
• FIIs still shorting the index future and option, on closing basis net long 32% and shorts 68% shorts increased and longs decreased compared to yesterdays data.
• This selling was observed by DIIs and supported the market from collapse.

• Closing price of BNF is above tomorrows Daily Pivot which is bullish. 
• All global markets are trading negatively. Dow down 450 points
• Max pain for March series is at 30500 level on todays closing basis. this did not change since yesterday.
• The candle formation on daily basis formed like inverted hammer which means temporary stop from the fall. 
• The weakness is driven mainly from the Global queue. 
• Daily CPR forming lower low pattern which means bearish view. CPR width is wider which means tomorrow will be side ways market. 
• As we are entering into new series there wont be much action. 
• Key support and resistance to watch out for
• Support 30050, then today's low 29915, 29800 there is a minor support if we break that we are back to 29600 level.
• Resistance: 30320, 30400, 30530 then 30760. 
• this will be sell on rise rally. 
• BNF range for this March based on 1SD calculation 33000 to 28000 . for this week expiry 05.March. 31300 to 29100 .

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI register advisior, The above trade setup is purely based on my own study and analysis. i am not giving suggestions to buy / sell specific options. please consult your financial advisors / do the due diligence before taking any trade.

Trade Setup Bank Nifty 27.02.2020

• Today's opening was surprising. i was expecting the more than 1% gap down in Nifty and Bank Nifty based on Global queue but only down 0.5% respectively.
• FIIs sold massively 3300 crs in cash market, DII net buyers bought 2700 crs approx.
• Nifty closed near to 200 DMA level. 
• Max Pain down by 100 more points and settled near 30400 on closing basis. which is a negative sign.
• Tomorrow monthly expiry both on Nifty and Bank Nifty and expecting another volatile session.
• Bank Nifty took support at 200 DMA and shoot up almost 200 points. 
• At one point Bank Nifty was near 30510 but it failed to hold 30450 pivot level which is confluence of Yearly and Daily Pivot. 
• San Francisco declared state of emergency in US that triggered the fall in DOW futures then to European futures and  then to our market as well.
• FIIs still maintaining the shorts in index futures and options. they are buying call options and almost doubling the put options, the same applies to future as well. overall they are maintaining 38% long and 62% percent shorts.
• Today's closing price below CPR and also daily pivot formed lower low, which is a bearish sentiment. 
• Tomorrows CPR width narrowed and this indicates tomorrow is trending day. 
• In daily chart of BNF it suggests 2nd consecutive day formed a DOJI pattern which indecisive pattern and anything can happen tomorrow.
• Key levels to watch out for tomorrow. 30140 level should be first support which is also a 200 DMA then 30050, 29680 and 30440 level is resistance which is yearly pivot, then 30550, 30660 then 30760 level 
• it all depends on how US market closes today based on that how Asian market reacts to morning is the key for us.
• As for the Feb series concerned there were lot of shorts in index future and options and tomorrow is monthly expiry, these shorts will exit from the position and that should trigger the short covering rally in the later part of the 2nd half.

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI register advisior, The above trade setup is purely based on my own study and analysis. i am not giving suggestions to buy / sell specific options. please consult your financial advisors / do the due diligence before taking any trade.

Trade Setup Bank Nifty 26.02.2020

• Indices managed to close Flat with Negative bias
• FIIs were net sellers, sold whooping 2300 cr in cash market
• after such a big fall yesterday markets were consolidated and traded in the range bound.
• Today's closing price in BNF is just above the Tomorrows pivot which is minor bullish sign, but CPR on a daily basis formed a lower low  formation which is bearish view.
• CPR width Narrowed on daily basis which means tomorrow could be trending day.
• Max pain level is now at 30500 which is down by 100 points, which means negative sentiment.
• As per OI data, FII were net short in index, long to put percentage is 38% to 62 % respectively combined both in Futures and options. 
• however when compared this data with the data of 24.02. few longs were added in the index futures and options.
• Key Support and resistance to watch-out for. yearly pivot 30400 could act as major support / resistance based on tomorrows open price.
• if the today's low 30330 could act as support then 30240 to 30280 zone, if this does not sustain then Bank Nifty might take support near 200 DMA which is 30140 level then 30050.
• Up side 30530, 30650, closing above that level would trigger the short covering rally till 30760 which is weekly pivot.
• Our markets are depended on global queues, and as expected yesterday sell on rise rally seems to working out. 
• Tomorrows open price all depends on how US markets close today, so we have to wait and watch. 

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI register advisior, The above trade setup is purely based on my own study and analysis. i am not giving suggestions to buy / sell specific options. please consult your financial advisors / do the due diligence before taking any trade.

Trade setup for Bank Nifty 25.02.2020

• Market fell due to corona virus outbreak outside China.
• VIX shoot up 24% in a single day and A to D ratio is 50 in Nifty which all 50 stocks in nifty is trading negatively.
• Banknifty closed near to Yearly pivot which is 30450 level
• at one point in the morning took support at monthly S1 support which is 30550 level and went up till 30700 levels. from there Bank nifty fell almost 300 points. this is inline with what i mentioned yesterday which is sell on rise rally.
• FIIs were net seller, sold approx 1100 crs in cash market.
• huge short positions were added in BNF moving max pain down to 30600 level, compared to yesterday 31000, almost 400 points down in the max pain.
• Bank nifty is trading below this pain level and CPR width widened and price closed below CPR width which is bearish sentiment.
• all global index future market fell to almost 3 percent. 
• Bank Nifty might take support near 200 DMA which is 30140 level then 30050 level if we dont withstand 30400 level.
• up side i could only sense 30700 to 30760 could be first resistance then to 30900 level.
• one can enter long only when Index cross above 31250 until then it should be sell on rise rally.
• if we open gap down tomorrow, 30400 to 30450 levels to watch out for shorting opportunity as this is a yearly pivot and could act as a resistance for short period of time.
• I am predicting that tomorrow first 15 to 30 mins market will be very volatile and then market may consolidate which is good for short sellers for eating premium. 

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI register advisior, The above trade setup is purely based on my own study and analysis. i am not giving suggestions to buy / sell specific options. please consult your financial advisors / do the due diligence before taking any trade.

Trade setup for Bank Nifty 24.02.2020

• Banknifty formed Doji pattern on daily chart and Nifty under performed on Thursday.
• Banknifty reversed from 31080 levels which is weekly pivot for last week and fell almost 150 points.
• Markets are closed near to Max pain level on Thursday.
• Now we are into monthly expiry this week, Global markets are in bearish view because of the corona-virus epidemic issue.
• During the weekend South Korea reported 650 infected cases and raised a red flag.
• Friday SGX nifty closed near 12020, this indicates on Monday we will for sure start with negative bias.
• key support and resistance levels to watch out for Banknifty weekly pivot forming lower low formation (week on week).
• 30760 is weekly pivot levels and key support level to watch out is 30400 level closing, if this level is not supported then we are going down to 30000 level and then 29600
• one can enter long positions only when 31250 is crossed, until then it should be sell on rise rally.
• FIIs were net buyers on Thursday. bought approx 1400 crs but still they are shorting the Index.
• The overall long to short percentage by FII both index futures and option is 36% to 64%
• Monthly Max pain suggesting 31000 level, but we need to see how max pain levels moves based on OI
• Daily CPR suggesting Narrow width which means on Monday Market should be trending.
• Bank Nifty to trade between 31200 to 29800 for this week.

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI register advisior, The above trade setup is purely based on my own study and analysis. i am not giving suggestions to buy / sell specific options. please consult your financial advisors / do the due diligence before taking any trade.