Trade Setup for 17.12.2019

• Both Indices managed to close negatively. but Bank Nifty crossed recent all time high but as soon as it crossed there was selling pressure.
• Bank Nifty especially rallied for last 3 days it is very much expected that it enters into correction zone. 
• FII were net buyers (bought approx 760 crs)
• As per market participation data FIIs unwound future longs net around 6500 but net shorts were added only 864. in futures they are distributed equally (50 % long and 50 % short) 
• in options they unwound lot of call of options (approx 11200) but they did not buy any put options
• net 13200 short put contracts were offloaded by FII and 1200 short call contracts.
• Overall long to short percentage is 44 to 56. 
• today close was just below the CPR range and on daily basis CPR narrowed. 
• Both Nifty and Bank Nifty PCR is down compared to yesterday but it is above 1.
• Max pain was increased by 200 on monthly basis, which is at 31700
• Open interest for Bank nifty 31500 Put change in OI is 2 lakh contracts could act as major support, upside 32200 and 32500 seen major OI could act as resistance.
• Considering all these factor, Bank Nifty likely to test 31500 near future if it doesn't hold 31800 - 31880 level.
• Ahead of GST meeting (18th Dec) market would remain sideways with negative bias. 
• Planning to do 31500, 32000 and 32500 short straddle on monthly basis and 32000, 31800, 31600 and 32200 short straddle on weekly basis.

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI register advisior, The above trade setup is purely based on my own study and analysis. i am not giving suggestions to buy / sell specific options. please consult your financial advisors / do the due diligence before taking any trade.

Trade Setup for 13.12.2019

• All Indices closed positively except IT.
• FIIs were net seller (sold approx 680 Crs)
• As per market participation data, FII bought index futures and unwound 3100 contracts
• Long put and Short call unwinding seen by FII which is good sign for bulls.
• net Long to Short percentage is 45% vs 55% , yesterday it was 43 vs 57 , bullish view
• Today's Bank Nifty closing price, above tomorrow / weekly CPR indicates bullish view.
• but weekly and daily CPR width widened compare to previous week / day.
• 31500 should act as strong support because of weekly and daily CPR confluence, followed by 31480 and then 31330 levels.
• 31770 and 31830 levels should be resistance if this breaks out then it might go until recent highs 32150 level.
• Max pain increased by 100 points 31500 level
• PCR increased significantly which is good sign for bulls.
• Planning to do short straddle 31200, 31400, 31500, 31600, 31800, 32000 and 32200 on weekly basis.
• Monthly 31000, 31500, 32000 and 32500 short straddle.
• Short strangles weekly 32000 above calls (32200, 32400 and 32500) and 31200 below puts (31000, 30800, 30600) 
• expecting that bank nifty likely to trade this week between 32200 - 31200 levels. 

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI register advisior, The above trade setup is purely based on my own study and analysis. i am not giving suggestions to buy / sell specific options. please consult your financial advisors / do the due diligence before taking any trade.

Trade Setup for 12.12.2019

• Last hour recovery helped indices to close positively from days low.
• FIIs and DIIs are net buyers  today.
• As per market participation data FIIs on index future did not do much but in index options they bought more calls than put and wrote more calls than put. this is giving mixed signals. 
• The last hour recovery might be a trap for Bulls.
• Net long to short on index by FIIs 43 % vs 57 % which means still there is a bearish sentiment.
• Bank Nifty closing price is above CPR, and Daily CPR narrowed a bit, and making lower low pattern, indicates the bearish sentiment.
• Predicting that because of the agitation caused by citizenship amendment bill our indices could come under pressure. 
• today Fed will announce about the interest rates, tomorrow ECB Interest rate decision, all these contribute to another volatility session tomorrow.
• no change in Max pain, PCR increased a bit, all these are giving mixed signals.
• if open price tomorrow is above CPR, there is likely to be magnet trade to the level central pivot. 
• 31000 should act as support and 31500 should act as resistance. 
• Planning to do short strangles 30600, 30800, 31000, 31200, 31400, 31500, 31600 and 31800 on weekly basis.
• monthly 30500, 31000, 31500 and 32000 short strangles. 

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI register advisior, The above trade setup is purely based on my own study and analysis. i am not giving suggestions to buy / sell specific options. please consult your financial advisors / do the due diligence before taking any trade.

Trade Setup for 11.12.2019

• Both Indices are closed negatively.
• FIIs are net sellers (sold approx 360 Cr)
• CPR width widened for tomorrow compared to today's CPR width.
• Bank Nifty closed below the CPR width, which indicates the bearish sentiment
• Support for bank nifty is seen at 31126, 31050, 30888 and 30760
• Resistance for bank nifty is seen at 31229, 31326 then 31500 levels
• expecting that tomorrow if Bank nifty sustains the level 31050, there is a possibility of short covering rally. 
• As mentioned in my previous blog that Bank Nifty likely to trade between 30800 and 31800 level for this expiry. if it breaks this level 30760, we might also see soon 30500.
• max pain down by another 100 points which is 31300 on weekly basis.
• PCR also down for both Nifty and Bank Nifty on closing basis which indicates bearish sentiment.
• As per market participation data, equal OI added on index futures both long and short side.
• But they bought more puts than calls and shorted more calls than put indicates bearish sentiment.
• Long to short percentage is 42% long and 58% short side by FII. 
• Planning to the short straddle 30800, 31000, 31200, 31400, 31500, 31600, 31800, and hedge with 30500 PE and 32000 CE on weekly basis. 
• if there is a short covering and if bank nifty closes between 31400 to 31500 level premium may fall on both sides.
• Monthly 30500, 31000, 31500, 32000, 32500 short straddle. 

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI register advisior, The above trade setup is purely based on my own study and analysis. i am not giving suggestions to buy / sell specific options. please consult your financial advisors / do the due diligence before taking any trade.

Trade Setup for 10.12.2019

• Indices Nifty and Bank Nifty closed flat after the volatile session.
• FII are net buyers, they bought approx 450 Cr
• As per the market participation data from FII perspective not much action on index futures / Options.
• the sentiment remains bearishness, as the net long to put percentage is 43% vs 57%
• Max pain down with 100 points in weekly.
• On daily chart bank nifty and nifty formed a doji candle stick pattern which indicates indecisiveness.
• Yesterdays close is near to CPR range which also indicates that there is no clear direction which way the indices should go.
• Daily CPR is narrowed compare to yesterdays CPR.
• PCR data of Nifty and Bank Nifty is increased compared to previous day.
• As per OI data, 31000 looks to be support and 31400 followed by 31800 should act as resistance.
• Bank Nifty likely to trade for this expiry between 30800 to 31800 levels. 
• planning to short straddle 30800, 31000, 31200, 31400, 31500, 31600, 31800, 32000 and buy 30500 pe and 32200 ce to hedge the short positions
• On monthly basis planning to do the short straddle 30500, 31000, 31500, 32000, 32500

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI register advisior, The above trade setup is purely based on my own study and analysis. i am not giving suggestions to buy / sell specific options. please consult your financial advisors / do the due diligence before taking any trade.

Trade Setup for 06.12.2019

• As expected Volatile session on expiry day + RBI event 
• RBI gave surprise with the news there is no rate cut, everyone was expecting that there will be cut on 25 bps. 
• This triggered the selling pressure from today's high.
• As soon as this news came out with in minutes Bank nifty fell from 32080 to 31750 .
• Bulls did not hold 32000 level.
• VIX shot up 8% on closing basis.
• Today's close is below to the daily and weekly CPR range. which indicates bearish sentiment ahead.
• Next Week expiry CPR and Daily CPR narrowed compared to last week and today, indicates trending days ahead. (could be down side / upside)
• FIIs net buyers they bought 650 crs approx.
• As per the market participation data, FIIs continue to short the index future (net 2310 contracts), unwinding seen in all longs (call / put) and shorts (call / put) net net basis. but overall there are still more shorts than longs. 
• In terms of percentages overall contracts held by FII, short side 57% and long side 43% this it self is a signal that FIIs are in bearish mode.
• Bank nifty likely to trade between 31400 to 32000 tomorrow, Planning to do the short straddle 31200, 31400, 31500, 31800, 32000 on weekly expiry 12 dec. monthly basis planning to do the 31000, 31500, 32000 short straddle. 
• Max Pain level down by 100 points (31800) on weekly basis and monthly basis there is no change.
• PCR also down in both indices.




Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI register advisior, The above trade setup is purely based on my own study and analysis. i am not giving suggestions to buy / sell specific options. please consult your financial advisors / do the due diligence before taking any trade.

Trade Setup for 05.12.2019

• What a volatile session today, indices managed to close in Green ahead of RBI event.
• Bank nifty outperformed today by short covering rally.
• as expected, Bank Nifty took support at partial Virgin CPR level (31470 to 31440)and from there bounced back.
• FIIs are in selling mode, they are net sellers approx 780 crs.
• As per the market participation data, FII shorting index futures, they bought more calls than puts and shorting more puts then calls. 
• Max Pain moved up by 100 points suggests.
• Nifty and Bank Nifty PCR increased compared to previous day
• Highest OI added at 32000, 32200 and 32500 will act as resistance and 31800, 31500 could act as support.
• Tomorrow is weekly expiry and RBI MPC decision and expecting tomorrow one more volatile session.
• Bank Nifty likely to test recent highs 32155 this could first resistance, sustaining this level we could see up move till 32350 - 32400.
• expecting bank nifty likely to open between 32050 - 32000 level, and likely to be with in the range between 32250 and 31800 levels during the day.
• planning to do the short strangle 31600, 31800, 32000, 32200 weekly and 31500, 32000, 32500 on monthly expiry. 

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI register advisior, The above trade setup is purely based on my own study and analysis. i am not giving suggestions to buy / sell specific options. please consult your financial advisors / do the due diligence before taking any trade.

Trade Setup for 04.12.2019

• Majority of the Indices are closed in red, (except IT Index).
• FIIs sold 1100 crs today
• Bank Nifty down 320 points and up from lows about 150 points
• Nifty PCR and Bank Nifty PCR is at 0.79  and 0.75
• Daily CPR width Widened.
• Bank Nifty broke major support 31660 to 31600 levels, but at the end closed between these levels.
• first support could be today's low 31504 and then 31470 which is partial virgin CPR. if price dont sustain then we could see more correction to 31330 and then to 31204.
• Sustaining the support level 31660 to 31600, immediate resistance seen at 31850 levels then 31940 level.
• Max pain down on weekly expiry and monthly expiry. 
• In Bank Nifty option chain on call side the IV increased significantly than put side.
• approx 4.8 lakh change in OI contracts are added at 32000 ce could act as resistance for this weekly expiry 
• around 1.3 lakh change in OI contracts are added at 31500 PE could act as immediate support .
• As per the market participation data, it is observed that FII were shorting the index, buying more puts and shorting calls. this indicates they are in selling mode.
• one can apply short straddle 31200, 31500, 31800, 32000
• Ahead of RBI event there could be some spike in the premium but predicting that bank nifty range will be between 31000 and 32000 for this expiry. 

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI register advisior, The above trade setup is purely based on my own study and analysis. i am not giving suggestions to buy / sell specific options. please consult your financial advisors / do the due diligence before taking any trade.

Trade Setup for 03.12.2019

• Nifty and Bank nifty closed negatively.
• Both Nifty and Bank Nifty PCR is at approx 1 on closing basis, which indicates sideways movement as only responsive buying and selling but not by the big player. 
• FIIs were net sellers (1370 Cr)
• FII participation on index seems to be not so much today. 3000 odd contracts added shorting the index and around 8000 contract added writing put options. 
• NSE suspends the licence of Karvy stock broking due to non compliance of regulatory provisions.
• it seems there are several banks have exposure to the Karvy stock broking and with the news suspending the licence by NSE, bank nifty is came under pressure. 
• Daily CPR width for tomorrow (03.12.) narrowed compare to 02.12 CPR width.
• this indicates tomorrow there could be volatile session. 
• Bank nifty could test the level 31660 - 31600 levels tomorrow and this is a major support zone. if it sustain this support level then one can look for buying opportunity.
• Today's high (02.12.) could act as resistance, if that is sustained, we could see some up move. 

Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI register advisior, The above trade setup is purely based on my own study and analysis. i am not giving suggestions to buy / sell specific options. please consult your financial advisors / do the due diligence before taking any trade.